New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Donaldson hit sacrifice fly to right, McKinney scored, Volpe to third.7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Guillorme singled to left, Baty scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 4Bauers singled to right, Higashioka scored and Volpe scored.6–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Volpe doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Higashioka to third.4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 4LeMahieu homered to left center (396 feet), Rizzo scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Canha grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Guillorme out at second, Baty to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2McNeil singled to left, Canha scored and Nimmo scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Baty singled to center, Alvarez scored, Lindor to third.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Nimmo homered to right center (429 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Stanton homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 15–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.