Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Willie CalhounBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jiménez homered to center (416 feet), Robert Jr. scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Cabrera singled to left, Bauers scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Calhoun homered to right center (376 feet), Higashioka scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Moncada homered to right center (385 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Robert Jr. homered to center (424 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Calhoun singled to left, Higashioka scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Higashioka doubled to right, McKinney scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Burger homered to center (421 feet), Vaughn scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −5 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +69 Elo | NYY 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.