Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-4
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Tim AndersonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Anderson doubled to left, Burger scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored on error, Jiménez safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Marisnick, Benintendi to third.0–2
- 6Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored on error, Jiménez safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Marisnick, Benintendi safe at third on error.0–2
- 6Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored on error, Jiménez safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Marisnick, Benintendi safe at third on error.0–2
- 6Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored on error, Jiménez safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Marisnick, Benintendi safe at third on error.0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Benintendi singled to left, González scored, Anderson to second.0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | DET: Reese Olson (no track record yet) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +18 Elo | CHW 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 13–1524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.