Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Moncada scored on Cisnero wild pitch.1–2
- 10Moncada scored on Cisnero wild pitch.1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6McKinstry scored on Cease wild pitch.1–1
- 6McKinstry scored on Cease wild pitch.1–1
- 4Benintendi scored on Lorenzen wild pitch.0–1
- 4Benintendi scored on Lorenzen wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- DET +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −1 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET 0 Elo | DET 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 14–1523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–2 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.