Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger homered to left center (385 feet), Benintendi scored, Moncada scored and Anderson scored.2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Grandal singled to left, Robert Jr. scored, Vaughn to second, Jiménez to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Jiménez singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Torkelson homered to left (400 feet), Baddoo scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Fair odds
- CHW -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +32 Elo | CHW 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 15–1522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–3 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.