Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Seby ZavalaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Josh DonaldsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Donaldson homered to left (408 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Kiner-Falefa doubled to center, Calhoun scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Zavala homered to left (435 feet), González scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Zavala homered to right (320 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +49 Elo | NYY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 19–136th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.