Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Josh DonaldsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torres walked, Kiner-Falefa scored on Whitlock wild pitch.3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 43–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Hernández homered to left (391 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Donaldson homered to center (448 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Devers homered to left center (405 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Casas singled to right, Devers scored, Casas to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +39 Elo | NYY 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 20–1511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.