Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5McKinney homered to right center (407 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Torres homered to left center (402 feet), Calhoun scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +33 Elo | NYY 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 19–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 2–0 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.