Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hernández singled to left, Duvall scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Duran grounded out to second, Hernández scored, Wong to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Trevino singled to center, Donaldson scored and McKinney scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Turner homered to right center (373 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- BOS +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +47 Elo | NYY 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 21–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.