Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Higashioka reached on infield single to second, Kiner-Falefa scored on error, Higashioka safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Arroyo.1–3
- 7Higashioka reached on infield single to second, Kiner-Falefa scored on error, Higashioka safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Arroyo.1–3
- 7Higashioka reached on infield single to second, Kiner-Falefa scored on error, Higashioka safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Arroyo.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Calhoun homered to right center (362 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Devers homered to center (417 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Torres homered to right (359 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- BOS +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 20–1613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.