San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting4-6, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sabol hit sacrifice fly to center, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada to third.11–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 310–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 9Estrada reached on infield single to second, Crawford scored, Wade Jr. to third.10–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Walker doubled to left, Contreras scored, Carlson to third.9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 6Bailey homered to left (366 feet).9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Yastrzemski homered to left center (391 feet), Conforto scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 5Crawford sacrificed to pitcher, Yastrzemski scored, Bailey to second.6–2
- 5Bailey singled to right, Schmitt scored, Yastrzemski to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Schmitt singled to right, Sabol scored, Conforto to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Conforto singled to left, Pederson scored, Davis thrown out at third.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 1Carlson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado out at second, Gorman to third.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Goldschmidt reached on infield single to first, Donovan scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Conforto doubled to center, Estrada scored and Pederson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 13–1927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 4–1 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.