Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting1-3
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Morel singled to center, Madrigal scored and Tauchman scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Morel homered to right (365 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Mervis homered to right center (420 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Fair odds
- SF -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +44 Elo | SF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.