Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson reached on infield single to pitcher, Crawford scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Barnhart singled to center, Mervis scored, Morel to second, Hoerner to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Hoerner singled to center, Happ scored and Suzuki scored, Mervis to second.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Estrada doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Pederson to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Fair odds
- SF -115
- CHC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −13 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.