Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ward homered to left center (401 feet).4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Thaiss reached on infield single to shortstop, Ohtani scored and Trout scored, Rendon to third.4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Trout singled to center, Rengifo scored and Urshela scored, Ohtani to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Drury scored on Wesneski wild pitch, Rengifo to second, Urshela to third on wild pitch by Wesneski.4–2
- 5Drury scored on Wesneski wild pitch, Rengifo to second on wild pitch by Wesneski, Urshela to third on wild pitch by Wesneski.4–2
- 4Ohtani homered to right (374 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Mervis doubled to right, Wisdom scored and Tauchman scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Tauchman singled to center, Suzuki scored and Gomes scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -116
- CHC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −8 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +34 Elo | LAA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 15–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.