Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4
- Drew CarltonPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Soto grounded out to first, Grisham scored, Tatis Jr. to second.7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 3Amaya homered to left center (415 feet), Gomes scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Swanson doubled to center, Amaya scored and Morel scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Mancini homered to left center (407 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Gomes homered to center (413 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Happ reached on infield single to third, Hoerner scored on throwing error by third baseman Machado, Happ to second.1–0
- 1Happ reached on infield single to third, Hoerner scored on throwing error by third baseman Machado, Happ to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 11–1627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 3–2 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.