Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miles MastrobuoniBatting1-4
- Drew SmylyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to center (411 feet), Kim scored and Grisham scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to center (430 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Grisham doubled to center, Cronenworth scored, Grisham safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Tauchman.0–2
- 2Grisham doubled to center, Cronenworth scored on error, Grisham safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Tauchman.0–2
- 2Grisham doubled to center, Cronenworth scored on error, Grisham safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Tauchman.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Dixon hit sacrifice fly to right, Sánchez scored, Cronenworth to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- CHC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 10–1628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 3–1 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.