Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bogaerts reached on infield single to third, Odor scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Swanson homered to left (360 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Happ grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hoerner scored, Swanson out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | +18 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 1.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +77 Elo | SD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 25th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 10–1528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.