San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Austin SlaterBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey sacrificed, Haniger scored, Slater to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Slater singled to left, Pederson scored, Haniger to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Schmitt singled to left, Haniger scored and Slater scored, Flores to second.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Slater singled to left, Conforto scored, Haniger to second.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 6Jones homered to right center (483 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Blackmon doubled to center, Castro scored and Tovar scored, Wynns to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Tovar singled to left, Moustakas scored, Castro to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Fair odds
- COL -103
- SF +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +28 Elo | SF 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 15–1522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.