San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting3-3, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Dinelson LametPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haniger walked, Wade Jr. scored, Flores to second, Estrada to third.10–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 410–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 39–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7McMahon doubled to center, Profar scored.9–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 7Profar tripled to center, Blackmon scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7Davis hit sacrifice fly to left, Wade Jr. scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Profar doubled to left, Blackmon scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Conforto singled to center, Davis scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Davis doubled to center, Pederson scored and Wade Jr. scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Wade Jr. singled to center, Yastrzemski scored and Bailey scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Jones grounded into fielder's choice to third, Grichuk scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Fair odds
- COL -106
- SF +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.0 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Dinelson Lamet: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +1 Elo | SF 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 15–1420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.