Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4
- Drew SmylyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Neto scored on throwing error by catcher Gomes, Ward stole second.1–3
- 6Neto scored on throwing error by catcher Gomes, Ward stole second.1–3
- 6Neto scored on throwing error by catcher Gomes, Ward stole second.1–3
- 2Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Rengifo scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Adell homered to left (451 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Mancini doubled to left, Amaya scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -115
- CHC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −17 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–2 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.