Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Trey ManciniBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moniak doubled to right, Drury scored, Neto scored and Rengifo scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Rengifo singled to right, Thaiss scored, Drury to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Rengifo homered to center (427 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Amaya singled to left, Mancini scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Mancini doubled to left, Tauchman scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Trout homered to center (388 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | 0 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Jaime Barria: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +48 Elo | LAA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–1 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.