San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson singled to right, Crawford scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored, Crawford to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Crawford doubled to right, Sabol scored, Yastrzemski to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Conforto homered to right center (390 feet), Davis scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1Tovar doubled to right, Grichuk scored, Jones to third.1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Jones singled to left, McMahon scored and Profar scored, Grichuk to third.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1McMahon singled to center, Blackmon scored, Profar to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Estrada homered to left (424 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.1 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +5 Elo | SF 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 15–1623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.