San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford singled to left, Bailey scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Haniger singled to right, Flores scored, Davis to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Goldschmidt homered to left center (385 feet), Donovan scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5DeJong homered to left (378 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Haniger doubled to left, Estrada scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Davis grounded out to third, Slater scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +3 Elo | SF 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 13–1826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.