Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan WalkerPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Estrada homered to left (382 feet), Haniger scored and Schmitt scored.3–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–13
- 6Flores hit sacrifice fly to right, Pederson scored.3–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6Estrada homered to left (413 feet).3–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 6Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wisdom scored, Tauchman out at second, Madrigal to third.3–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 5Sabol singled to right, Conforto scored, Haniger to third.2–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Conforto singled to center, Pederson scored and Davis scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Sabol singled to right, Flores scored, Yastrzemski to second.2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pederson homered to right (405 feet), Schmitt scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Gomes grounded into fielder's choice to second, Morel scored, Swanson to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Tauchman reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Schmitt. Gomes scores. Madrigal to 3rd, Tauchman to 2nd on throwing error by shortstop Schmitt.1–2
- 2In play, run(s)1–2
- 2In play, run(s)1–2
- 2In play, run(s)1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Fair odds
- SF -117
- CHC +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −2 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +43 Elo | SF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–0 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.