St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vogelbach homered to right (401 feet).1–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Contreras homered to left (421 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Pham singled to left, McNeil scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Lindor hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored, McNeil to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pham singled to center, Baty scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Baty doubled to right, Marte scored and McNeil scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- STL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −15 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.