San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Wade Jr. singled to right, Flores scored.8–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 10Flores singled to left, Estrada scored, Flores to second.7–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 10Estrada singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 35–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Yastrzemski homered to right (417 feet), Wade Jr. scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Yastrzemski singled to left, Villar scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Walker singled to center, Gorman scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 2Edman homered to right (385 feet), Arenado scored, Carlson scored and DeJong scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- SF +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.9 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +4 Elo | STL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 13–2027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 5–1 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.