St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado homered to left (390 feet).8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 5Pham homered to right center (386 feet), Lindor scored.7–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Walker homered to right (359 feet).7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 4Canha singled to center, McNeil scored, Escobar to third.6–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 3DeJong homered to left (405 feet).6–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 2Nimmo doubled to left, Canha scored and Escobar scored, Nimmo out stretching at third.5–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Escobar tripled to center, McNeil scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Goldschmidt doubled to center, Donovan scored and Edman scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Donovan singled to center, Knizner scored, Edman to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Lindor homered to left center (401 feet).2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -116
- STL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.