Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Astros- Corey JulksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bregman singled to right, Meyers scored.9–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 29–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 10Fraley grounded out to second, Fairchild scored, De La Cruz to second.9–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 10De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, Fairchild to third.8–6
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball 37–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10Friedl reached on bunt single to third, Senzel scored on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9McCormick singled to left, Tucker scored, Diaz to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8India homered to right (356 feet).6–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 6Steer homered to left center (409 feet), De La Cruz scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Fraley singled to right, McLain scored, Fraley out stretching at second, De La Cruz to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Diaz doubled to left, Tucker scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Bregman tripled to right, Bregman scored on throwing error by second baseman India.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 20–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.