New York Mets at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Escobar singled to center, Alvarez scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 8Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, Pham scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 7Altuve singled to center, Julks scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Bregman homered to left (361 feet), Maldonado scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Altuve hit sacrifice fly to center, Julks scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- NYM +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +8 | NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +58 Elo | HOU 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.