San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Wade Jr. singled to right, Sabol scored, Crawford to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Sabol singled to center, Matos scored, Sabol to second.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Matos doubled to left, Conforto scored and Yastrzemski scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Peralta singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Wade Jr. grounded out to first, Crawford scored, Schmitt to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Outman singled to center, Peralta scored, Martinez to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Yastrzemski singled to right, Pederson scored on error, Yastrzemski safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Heyward.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Wade Jr. scored, Pederson to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Fair odds
- LAD -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.0 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +9 Elo | LAD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 22–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–2 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.