San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Slater singled to right, Matos scored, Crawford to third.7–5
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 36–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 11Crawford singled to right, Bailey scored, Matos to third.6–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Freeman reached on infield single to second, Rojas scored, Betts to second.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Schmitt reached on infield single to shortstop, Pederson scored, Conforto to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Estrada hit sacrifice fly to center, Slater scored, Pederson to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pederson singled to left, Crawford scored, Pederson to second, Slater to second, Slater safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Deluca.3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Flores homered to left (387 feet), Estrada scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Outman singled to left, Smith scored on error and Martinez scored on error, Outman safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Conforto.0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Martinez doubled to left, Betts scored, Smith to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +26 Elo | LAD 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 22–112nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.