Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi singled to left, Robert Jr. scored and González scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Jiménez singled to center, Vaughn scored, Robert Jr. to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Frazier singled to center, Benintendi scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Burger homered to left (380 feet), Jiménez scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Betts singled to right, Heyward scored and Vargas scored, Barnes to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Barnes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Taylor scored, Vargas to second, Heyward to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Heyward singled to right, Peralta scored on throwing error by right fielder Frazier, Heyward to second, Taylor safe at third on error.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Robert Jr. homered to left (390 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Burger homered to center (393 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +10 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +65 Elo | LAD 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 21–102nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.