Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jean SeguraBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Segura doubled to left, Gurriel scored and Sánchez scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 9Gurriel grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Soler scored, Sánchez to second, De La Cruz out at third.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 9Sánchez walked, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to second, Soler to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 10 : Ball 42–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 11–1
- 9De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Davis scored on fielding error by shortstop Anderson, Soler to second, Arraez to third.1–1
- 9De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Davis scored on fielding error by shortstop Anderson, Soler to second, Arraez to third.1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Vaughn homered to right center (382 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 54%
- Fair odds
- CHW -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +11 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +27 Elo | CHW 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.