Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Joey WendleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Yasmani GrandalBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. singled to left, Andrus scored, Benintendi to second.1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Wendle homered to right (351 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Grandal homered to right (349 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +2 Elo | MIA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 16–1519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.