Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam KolarekPitching1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Betts scored, Smith out at second, Freeman to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Clemens singled to right, Stott scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Castellanos homered to center (407 feet), Turner scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Heyward homered to right (369 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Stubbs reached on bunt single to pitcher, Stott scored, Marsh out at third on runner's fielder's choice.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Freeman homered to center (399 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Stott singled to center, Turner scored and Harper scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Harper singled to left, Turner scored, Castellanos to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -105
- LAD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | LAD: Caleb Ferguson (no track record yet) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 18–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 4–1 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.