Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa singled to center, Realmuto scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Realmuto doubled to center, Harper scored and Turner scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Maton homered to right (408 feet), McKinstry scored and Báez scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Turner homered to left (424 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Harper singled to left, Castellanos scored, Harper out stretching at second.0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Turner homered to left center (420 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Castellanos doubled to left, Guthrie scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Turner singled to left field, Schwarber scored, Castellanos to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −2 | DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 14–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.