Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens doubled to right, Turner scored, Stott to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 9Maton singled to right, Báez scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Short reached on bunt single to pitcher, Marisnick scored, Nevin to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Harper hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -115
- DET +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | DET: Tyler Holton (no track record yet) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 16–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.