Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to right (389 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Freeman homered to center (412 feet).4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Betts homered to left (403 feet), Vargas scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Turner singled to left, Castellanos scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Schwarber scored on Grove wild pitch, Castellanos to third on wild pitch by Grove.1–3
- 5Schwarber scored on Grove wild pitch, Castellanos to third on wild pitch by Grove.1–3
- 5Castellanos doubled to center, Sosa scored, Schwarber to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Harper singled to right, Schwarber scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Martinez doubled to left, Freeman scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | LAD: Victor Gonzalez (no track record yet) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +10 Elo | LAD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 17–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.