Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-4
- Aaron NolaPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Martinez homered to left (405 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Muncy walked, Betts scored on Hoffman wild pitch, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Hoffman.6–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 46–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Smith grounded out to third, Outman scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 7Betts singled to left, Taylor scored, Outman to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Peralta homered to right center (415 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Freeman singled to left, Betts scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Betts singled to left, Outman scored, Betts to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 47%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | 0 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +22 Elo | LAD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 18–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.