Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grandal hit sacrifice fly to center, Vaughn scored.1–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored, Martinez to third.0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Peralta homered to center (407 feet), Heyward scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Smith homered to left center (413 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −4 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 20–102nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.