Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz doubled to left, Berti scored and Davis scored, De La Cruz to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Segura homered to left (412 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Cooper homered to center (427 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 8Soler homered to left (370 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left (370 feet), Frazier scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6González doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Burger scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Burger doubled to right, Vaughn scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Soler homered to center (410 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -105
- MIA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +7 Elo | CHW 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.