Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Freeman singled to center, Taylor scored, Betts to second, Rojas to third.4–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Taylor homered to left center (391 feet), Smith scored, Peralta scored and Outman scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Vaughn homered to left (394 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Burger homered to center (406 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Jiménez homered to right center (377 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Robert Jr. homered to center (418 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +51 Elo | LAD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 21–112nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.