San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Michael BuschBatting2-3
- Bobby MillerPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Davis singled to right, Wade Jr. scored.15–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–0
- 9Wade Jr. reached on infield single to third, Villar scored on error, Wade Jr. safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Busch.14–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging13–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
- 9Schmitt grounded out to shortstop, Matos scored.13–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 7Wade Jr. singled to left, Bailey scored, Crawford to second.12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–0
- 7Bailey doubled to center, Matos scored and Sabol scored.11–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 111–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 6Davis homered to center (441 feet), Matos scored, Crawford scored and Wade Jr. scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Crawford singled to center, Yastrzemski scored, Matos to second.5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Wade Jr. homered to right (399 feet), Crawford scored and Schmitt scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Crawford singled to right, Matos scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- SF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +17 | SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +48 Elo | LAD 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 22–122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.