Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith singled to left, Busch scored, Freeman to second.2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 8Busch singled to right, Rojas scored.1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- LAD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −11 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +5 Elo | LAA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 20–149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.