Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to left center (453 feet), Ward scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Taveras singled to center, Garver scored, Jankowski to third.1–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 8Garver reached on infield single to shortstop, Jung scored, Heim to second.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Seager homered to right center (384 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Semien homered to left (361 feet), Grossman scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Taveras homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Rendon doubled to right, Trout scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -118
- LAA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.2 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −9 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +51 Elo | TEX 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 21–113rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–2 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.