Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting5-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Francisco MejiaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6García hit a ground rule double, Semien scored and Seager scored, Lowe to third.8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 4Mejía homered to right (370 feet), Arozarena scored and Raley scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Raley doubled to center, J. Lowe scored, Arozarena to third.6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Seager homered to right (387 feet), Duran scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Duran doubled to left, Jankowski scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Seager doubled to right, Jankowski scored and Taveras scored, Semien thrown out at home.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Jankowski grounded into fielder's choice to second, Heim scored on error, Jankowski second.1–0
- 2Jankowski grounded into fielder's choice to second, Heim scored on error, Jankowski second.1–0
- 2Jankowski grounded into fielder's choice to second, Heim scored on error, Jankowski second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Fair odds
- TB -113
- TEX +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −10 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +1 Elo | TB 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 30–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.