Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena homered to right center (385 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 9Lewis singled to left, Taylor scored, Kepler to second.1–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Paredes homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −9 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +68 Elo | TB 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 27–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.