Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-3
- Louis VarlandPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arozarena grounded out to third, Díaz scored, Franco to third.0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 7Siri homered to left center (457 feet).0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Raley homered to center (450 feet), Franco scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Bruján sacrificed to pitcher, Ramírez scored, Bethancourt to second.0–3
- 4Bethancourt singled to center, Arozarena scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Arozarena singled to center, Raley scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -125
- MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +2.02nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 26–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.