Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor homered to left center (418 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Franco scored on throwing error by pitcher Jax, Arozarena safe at second on error.1–4
- 6Franco scored on throwing error by pitcher Jax, Arozarena safe at second on error.1–4
- 6Franco scored on throwing error by pitcher Jax, Arozarena safe at second on error.1–4
- 6Franco scored on throwing error by pitcher Jax, Arozarena safe at second on error.1–4
- 4Ramírez homered to center (416 feet), Raley scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Raley tripled to right, Arozarena scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Correa homered to left (406 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −6 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 28–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.