Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting2-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung homered to center (413 feet).3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Taveras homered to right center (427 feet).2–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 6Walls singled to left, Bethancourt scored, Margot to second.1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Margot singled to left, Siri scored, Bethancourt to second.1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Paredes homered to left (405 feet), Arozarena scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 11–4
- 3Paredes homered to left (370 feet), Ramírez scored and Arozarena scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Taveras homered to right (389 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Paredes doubled to left, Ramírez scored, Arozarena to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.5 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 29–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.